Dynamic forces affecting India’s foreign policy 2024
Introduction
Indian Foreign policy is based on conventional principles intended to safeguard our nation’s interest, ensuring its security, promoting economic development, achieving global peace and fostering diplomatic ties with other nations. This would assist in accomplishing favourable position in international community. After gaining independence, there’s massive shift in our foreign policy. This evolution has made India strategically matured nation.
In 2023, south-east Asia witnessed India determined to accomplish global leadership, Indian EAM, Mr. S Jaishankar also expressed that India’s opinion carries weight, our views are significant, country with population over 1.4 billion possesses the capability to influence global issues. This year, no doubt, a standout year for India’s foreign policy, despite of ongoing global conflict such as humanitarian crisis and economic slump because of Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas issues, countering them and showcasing India’s resilience and democratic skills. And, the outcome of upcoming election 2024 also plays strategic implications in shaping India’s foreign policy as resurgence of current government would likely to sustain its position in globally, in comparison to less robust opposition.
India’s Foreign Policy Landscape 2024
There are two crucial areas of foreign policy, diplomatic relation with influential nations and along with immediate neighboring relations. Experts also agree that India’s collaborative engagement with neighboring countries can directly exert its influence globally. Likewise, neighboring nation, on rational perspective, cooperating with 5th largest economy is also advantageous to its interest. Following are anticipated challenges and opportunities to navigate complex web of international relations:
Deadlock with China
Ladakh’s Galwan valley, erupted passive-aggressive tension between china and India, the matter is long standing since 2020, where the agreements were disregarded by Chinese government and principle of mutuality is flawed. As ongoing technology and economic warfare between 2 nations continue, China- Pakistan Military ties run parallel with china’s BRI initiatives to counter India. The inherent distrust and psychological war-game has further reduced the flexibility in their relationship. Also China’s encroachment to India’s border of Jammu &Kashmir and north-east region results in India’s strategic investment in borders. Despite the several rounds of negotiations, there’s no considerable amount of progress in momentum of stabilizing borders and restoring normalcy in relation.
India- Pakistan Ties
Kashmir dispute and terrorism are the core issues that have frozen the bilateral dialogue but it can be restoring with collaborative efforts of Pakistan government to discontinue cross-border terrorism across India and other countries. With the abrogation of Article 370 and reducing trade relations exert pressure on Pakistan to normalize the relations back. Possibility of new government in 2024, view forward with confidence building measures by both countries as mutual concerns would open window for India and Pakistan regarding shared management of Indus Basin as lack of water infrastructure caused water shortage including minimal rainfall and Industrial pollution in different parts of India and Pakistan. Also targeting to improve Human development Index (HDI) at borders regions of India-Pakistan because of security perceptions, promoting religious tourism at Sharda Peeth and Kartarpur Corridor Initiative, all this depends on political dynamics and India’s strategic choices.
Outcome of Bangladesh
It is undeniable that India-Bangladesh has profound historical and fraternal connections, mutual commitment to democratic principles and pluralistic ideology. Especially with the government under Sheikh Hassina of Bangladesh Awami League party, has maintained close cooperation with India with intelligence sharing, security concern related to cross border terrorism – drug smuggling/trafficking, illegal Migration and promote bilateral Trade. India also entered Extradition treaty 2013 under her rule, strengthening mutual trust. However, the government led by Khaleda Zia of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), India encounter terrorism related issues. Despite of these, as a geopolitics Bangladesh hold a greater importance as it is a active partner of china’s BRI which could challenge India’s regional influence & hinder strategic ambitions, need of early resolution of Teesta river before China intend to operate any project there. Thus, mutual efforts can boost strategic ties.
India-Maldives
For India, Maldives location hold huge strategic importance especially in Indian ocean offering regional security and stability, nevertheless we share profound connection historically and culturally. So Indian government had fostering positive relationship aligning ‘Neighborhood First’ Policy. However, before ongoing diplomatic tension stemming from derogatory remark directed at Indian PM Mr. Modi following his promotional visit to Lakshadweep Islands, we also witnessed India out campaign in Maldivian politics resulting strain the relations. But from now, Maldives cannot disregard India entirely considering its economic reliance on tourism and necessity to enhance foreign exchange reserve to fulfill its debt obligations.
Carefully Monitoring Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar
Sri lanka, after a worst economic downturn led domestic policy blunders including deadly riots, severe shortage of food, fuel, critical medicine. Also country’s foreign debt increased at insurmountable levels under Rajpaksha clan. All because of Chinese influence under belt and Road Initiative Project In order to counter this India offered 4 billion as financial aid to Sri Lanka, developing strategic ties by bilateral trade and FDI (Foreign direct Investments) and mutual benefit.
Nepal, boundary dispute consider as a significant cause of tension in addition to rising Chinese influence due to belt and road initiative. Therefore it is diplomatically necessary for India to negotiate the boundary issue and remove the persisting mistrust.
Bhutan in recent talks, India assured its unwavering support in socio-economic progress, in harmony with priorities of Himalayan Nation. Both nations also agree on cross border connectivity via rail link between west Bengal and Bhutan and to develop ties with trade, infrastructure and energy sectors. Also there’s shift in political landscape of Bhutan, viewing PDP (people’s Democratic party) had a positive relations with Indian government, this paves a way for Indian Business to expand their investment in Bhutan.
In Myanmar, Apart from long standing Rohingya Issue, there’s another issue of unauthorized movement of tribal kuki-chin communities from Myanmar to India, emerges as a prominent concern in ongoing Manipur Conflict 2023. Thus, Indian Government to end FMR (Free Movement Region) that would thwart illegal migration and dismantle networks of gold smuggling and drug trafficking.
Relations with US & Canada
India has strategic and diplomatic partnership with US, especially to counter china in South Asian region. India continued to increase its economic ties by entering in bilateral trade agreements, Defense cooperation via engaging military exercise, international collaboration on the issues of climate change and space & technology. Despite, India face criticism over its Non- Alignment Policy since Cold war, engagement with US Adversaries such Iran and Venezuela, efforts to bring them under SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), neutrality in Russia-Ukraine issue and India’s standing against terrorism and protecting the civilians in conflicting zone of Gaza reflects balanced approach towards global issues via providing humanitarian assistance to civilians of Ukraine and Gaza. India strategically maintaining its relation with US and condemn for its interference in internal affairs timely. The recent allegations on Indian Official over assassination plot, both countries choose to resist external pressure to uphold cordial relation.
We could see strain in relation with Canada, after alleged involvement of India in killing, Canadian Sikh (khalistani Activist, a declared terrorist by India). EAM Mr. Jaishankar raised his concern that Khalistani force afforded with Canadian politics and perceived as contrary to both nations interests affecting bilateral engagement.
Relation with Europe (UK, France)
Over the year India-France develop strategic partnership and mutual cooperation in advancement of space, technology and defense system benefiting both nations. In view of this French President receive special invitation as guest on occasion of 26th Republic 2024, there would be soon substantial outcome after his ceremonial visit.
With UK, Despite having Historical contradictions, Extraditions of offenders, political dynamics on Russia-Ukraine conflict acts as a friction between them, however, active measures were taken for cooperation on climate change, Nuclear energy Partnership, comprehensive migration and mobility partnership to improve the strategic alliance for mutual benefit in Indo-pacific region.
Japan and Russia
Japan is viewed as crucial ally in India’s economic transformation especially in bilateral engagements under various infrastructural developments project like metro rail projects and Industrial corridor projects. Also they would continue to have a positive collaboration in preventing the US-China Hegemony in Indo-pacific Region.
The Visit of Mr. Jaishankar is viewed as a special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia, diplomatically securing neutrality in Russia-Ukraine conflict and strengthening their shared geopolitical interests and mutual beneficial cooperation in terms geopolitics, economic, defense mechanism, potentially.
