Dynamic forces affecting India’s foreign policy 2024
Introduction
Indian foreign policy is based on conventional principles intended to safeguard our nation’s interests by ensuring its security, promoting economic development, achieving global peace, and fostering diplomatic ties with other nations. This would assist in achieving a favorable position in the international community. After gaining independence, there's been a massive shift in our foreign policy. This evolution has made India a strategically mature nation.
In 2023, southeast Asia witnessed India determined to accomplish global leadership. The Indian EAM, Mr. S. Jaishankar, also expressed that India’s opinion carries weight, our views are significant, and a country with a population of over 1.4 billion possesses the capability to influence global issues. This year is, no doubt, a standout year for India’s foreign policy, despite ongoing global conflict such as the humanitarian crisis and economic slump because of Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas issues, countering them and showcasing India’s resilience and democratic skills. And, the outcome of the upcoming election in 2024 also plays a strategic role in shaping India’s foreign policy, as the resurgence of the current government is likely to sustain its position globally in comparison to a less robust opposition.
India’s Foreign Policy Landscape 2024
There are two crucial areas of foreign policy: diplomatic relations with influential nations and immediate neighboring relations. Experts also agree that India’s collaborative engagement with neighboring countries can directly exert its influence globally. Likewise, from a rational perspective, cooperating with the 5th largest economy is also advantageous to its interests. Following are anticipated challenges and opportunities to navigate the complex web of international relations:
Deadlock with China
Ladakh’s Galwan valley erupted passive-aggressive tension between China and India. The matter has been long-standing since 2020, when the agreements were disregarded by the Chinese government and the principle of mutuality was flawed. As ongoing technology and economic warfare between the two nations continues, China-Pakistan military ties run parallel with China’s BRI initiatives to counter India. The inherent distrust and psychological war have further reduced the flexibility of their relationship. Also, China’s encroachment on India’s borders in Jammu and Kashmir and the north-east region results in India’s strategic investment in borders. Despite the several rounds of negotiations, there's been no considerable progress in the momentum of stabilizing borders and restoring normalcy.
India-Pakistan Ties
Kashmir dispute and terrorism are the core issues that have frozen the bilateral dialogue, but it can be restored with the collaborative efforts of the Pakistani government to discontinue cross-border terrorism across India and other countries. With the abrogation of Article 370 and reducing trade relations, pressure is exerted on Pakistan to normalize the relations. Possibility of a new government in 2024, view forward with confidence-building measures by both countries as mutual concerns would open a window for India and Pakistan regarding shared management of the Indus Basin as lack of water infrastructure caused water shortages, including minimal rainfall and industrial pollution in different parts of India and Pakistan. Also targeting to improve the Human Development Index (HDI) at border regions of India-Pakistan because of security perceptions and promoting religious tourism at the Sharda Peeth and Kartarpur Corridor Initiative, all of this depends on political dynamics and India’s strategic choices.
Outcome of Bangladesh
It is undeniable that India and Bangladesh have profound historical and fraternal connections, a mutual commitment to democratic principles, and a pluralistic ideology. Especially with the government under Sheikh Hassina of the Bangladesh Awami League party, India has maintained close cooperation with India with intelligence sharing, security concerns related to cross-border terrorism (drug smuggling and trafficking), illegal migration, and promoting bilateral trade. India also entered the Extradition Treaty of 2013 under her rule, strengthening mutual trust. However, the government led by Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in India encounters terrorism-related issues. Despite these, as a geopolitical country, Bangladesh holds greater importance as it is an active partner of China’s BRI, which could challenge India’s regional influence and hinder strategic ambitions. There is a need for early resolution of the Teesta River before China intends to operate any project there. Thus, mutual efforts can boost strategic ties.
India-Maldives
For India, Maldives locations hold huge strategic importance, especially in the Indian Ocean, offering regional security and stability; nevertheless, we share profound connections historically and culturally. So the Indian government was fostering positive relationships aligning with the ‘Neighborhood First’ policy. However, before ongoing diplomatic tension stemming from derogatory remarks directed at Indian PM Mr. Modi following his promotional visit to the Lakshadweep Islands, we also witnessed India's campaign in Maldivian politics, resulting in strain in relations. But from now on, the Maldives cannot disregard India entirely considering its economic reliance on tourism and the necessity to enhance the foreign exchange reserve to fulfill its debt obligations.
Carefully Monitoring Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar
Sri Lanka, after the worst economic downturn, led domestic policy blunders, including deadly riots, severe shortages of food, fuel, and critical medicine. Also, the country’s foreign debt increased to insurmountable levels under the Rajpaksha clan. All because of Chinese influence under belt and Road Initiative Project In order to counter this, India offered $4 billion as financial aid to Sri Lanka, developing strategic ties through bilateral trade and FDI (foreign direct investment) and mutual benefit.
Nepal, the boundary dispute is considered a significant cause of tension in addition to rising Chinese influence due to the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, it is diplomatically necessary for India to negotiate the boundary issue and remove the persisting mistrust.
In recent talks with Bhutan, India assured its unwavering support for socio-economic progress, in harmony with the priorities of the Himalayan nation. Both nations also agree on cross-border connectivity via a rail link between west Bengal and Bhutan and to develop ties with trade, infrastructure, and the energy sectors. Also, there's a shift in the political landscape of Bhutan; the PDP (people’s Democratic Party) has positive relations with the Indian government, which paves the way for Indian businesses to expand their investment in Bhutan.
In Myanmar, apart from the long-standing Rohingya issue, there’s another issue of the unauthorized movement of tribal Kuki-chin communities from Myanmar to India, which emerges as a prominent concern in the ongoing Manipur Conflict 2023. Thus, the Indian government wants to end FMR (Free Movement Region), which would thwart illegal migration and dismantle networks of gold smuggling and drug trafficking.
Relations with US and Canada
India has a strategic and diplomatic partnership with the US, especially to counter China in the South Asian region. India continued to increase its economic ties by entering into bilateral trade agreements, engaging in defense cooperation via military exercise, and international collaboration on the issues of climate change, space, and technology. Despite India's criticism over its non-alignment policy since the Cold War, engagement with US adversaries such as Iran and Venezuela, efforts to bring them under the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine issue, and India’s standing against terrorism and protecting civilians in the conflict zone of Gaza, it reflects a balanced approach towards global issues via providing humanitarian assistance to civilians in Ukraine and Gaza. India is strategically maintaining its relations with the US and condemns its interference in internal affairs. In the recent allegations against an Indian official over an assassination plot, both countries chose to resist external pressure to uphold cordial relations.
We could see strain in relation to Canada after the alleged involvement of India in killing a Canadian Sikh (a Khalistani activist, declared a terrorist by India). EAM Mr. Jaishankar raised his concern that Khalistani force was afforded with Canadian politics and perceived as contrary to both nations interests affecting bilateral engagement.
Relationship with Europe (UK, France)
Over the years, India and France have developed strategic partnerships and mutual cooperation in the advancement of space, technology, and defense systems, benefiting both nations. In view of this, the French President will receive a special invitation as a guest on the occasion of the 26th Republic of 2024, and there will soon be a substantial outcome after his ceremonial visit.
Despite having historical contradictions, extraditions of offenders, and political dynamics in the Russia-Ukraine conflict acting as friction between them, active measures were taken for cooperation on climate change, the Nuclear Energy Partnership, comprehensive migration, and mobility partnerships to improve the strategic alliance for mutual benefit in the Indo-Pacific region.
Japan and Russia
Japan is viewed as a crucial ally in India’s economic transformation, especially in bilateral engagements under various infrastructural development projects like metro rail projects and industrial corridor projects. Also, they would continue to have a positive collaboration in preventing US-China hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region.
The visit of Mr. Jaishankar is viewed as a special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia, diplomatically securing neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and strengthening their shared geopolitical interests and mutual beneficial cooperation in terms of geopolitics, economics, and defense mechanisms, potentially.
