INTRODUCTION :
The geopolitics of India has undergone significant transformation in recent decades. From being a leader of Non-Aligned movement during the cold war ,India has now emerged as a strategic player in the multipolar world. Its geographical location demographic strength ,growing economy ,and military capabilities shape its role in regional and global politics .
CHANGING DIMENSIONS OF INDIA :
India is navigating a volatile global order driven by power rivalries, economic shifts, tech disruption, and climate change. India is navigating a volatile global order driven by power rivalries, economic shifts, tech disruption, and climate change. identified a range of geopolitical and geo-economic megatrends that will influence India’s trajectory. One of the most prominent is the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China. This strategic competition is playing out in multiple arenas from trade and technology to maritime security and requires India to balance external alignments while asserting its strategic interests. Rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, particularly the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait, were flagged as critical risks that could have regional repercussions for India. India’s participation in informal coalitions such as the Quad, along with its engagement in regional maritime partnerships, is becoming increasingly central to its strategic calculus.
Growing trade fragmentation and the importance of regional integration through free trade agreements and comprehensive economic partnership agreements. India’s efforts to diversify supply chains, enhance its semiconductor ecosystem, and secure critical minerals were seen as essential steps to reduce dependence on external actors. Currency volatility and concerns about the long-term stability of the US dollar were raised, particularly considering broader shifts in global economic leadership. identified a range of geopolitical and geo-economic megatrends that will influence India’s trajectory. One of the most prominent is the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China. This strategic competition is playing out in multiple arenas from trade and technology to maritime security and requires India to balance external alignments while asserting its strategic interests. Rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, particularly the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait, were flagged as critical risks that could have regional repercussions for India. India’s participation in informal coalitions such as the Quad, along with its engagement in regional maritime partnerships, is becoming increasingly central to its strategic calculus.
growing trade fragmentation and the importance of regional integration through free trade agreements and comprehensive economic partnership agreements. India’s efforts to diversify supply chains, enhance its semiconductor ecosystem, and secure critical minerals were seen as essential steps to reduce dependence on external actors. Currency volatility and concerns about the long-term stability of the US dollar were raised, particularly considering broader shifts in global economic leadership.
Geopolitical competition escalated into violent conflict, but geo-economics trends are good for economic development.
This scenario envisions a future where global supply chains have shifted significantly away from China due to a prolonged US-led trade war. India emerges as a major beneficiary, having undertaken substantial domestic reforms that boost economic growth to between 7.5 and 8 per cent and increase the manufacturing sector’s share of growth domestic product (GDP) from 12 per cent in 2025 to 20 per cent by 2032. These reforms, alongside increased investment in defence procurement and a higher defence budget (raised from 1.9 to 2.5 per cent of GDP), have allowed India to convert its economic momentum into growing military capabilities. However, this rise has also made India a target. China, facing economic stagnation and internal adjustment from an investment-led to a consumer-driven model, views India’s gains with growing resentment.
By 2032, China adopts a more aggressive posture towards India, perceiving a narrowing window to assert itself. Although India has reduced some economic dependence on China, it remains reliant on key Chinese exports like critical minerals and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). In 2033, a skirmish breaks out in the Twang border region, resulting in dozens of casualties. Simultaneously, China increases pressure on India over its infrastructure projects in Arunachal Pradesh. Amidst these tensions, China blockades Taiwan, and the US pushes India to align more closely with Western security frameworks. India hesitates, wary of overstretching given its vulnerable position at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Geopolitical competition is managed, and geo-economics trends are good for economic development:
This scenario imagines a world where India finds a strategic balance amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty and accelerating geo-economic opportunity. In this future, China continues its grey zone operations across the Indo-Pacific but makes limited strategic gains. The United States shifts its focus fully to the China challenge, abandoning dual containment and reinforcing its Indo-Pacific presence. In response, India, Japan, and South Korea step up their defence preparedness and deepen coordination with the US. The Quad remains non-militarized but expands real-time intelligence sharing and maritime domain awareness.
In West Asia, geopolitical tensions de-escalate slightly. Saudi Arabia and Israel formalize relations under the Abraham Accords, while ceasefires largely hold in Gaza and Lebanon. In parallel, the transatlantic alliance endures, with increased burden-sharing by European partners. The broader international context is defined by the continuing breakdown of the old US-led order, creating both risk and opportunity for India to shape a more multipolar future.
On the economic front, India capitalizes on the stagnation of multilateralism by signing trade agreements with the US, European Union, and United Kingdom. It also reviews and deepens free trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN). These moves, combined with ambitious domestic reforms, allow India to emerge as a critical manufacturing hub and a key node in restructured global value chains. India also joins The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) following next-generation economic reforms. Technological fragmentation pushes India closer to the US and like-minded countries. Labour mobility agreements are signed with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, leveraging India’s demographic advantage.
Geopolitical conditions are managed, but geo-economics trends are bad for economic development:
This scenario presents a mixed strategic environment for India. While competition between the great powers remains below the threshold of open conflict, worsening global economic conditions place mounting pressure on India’s long-term development and security.
On the military front, India faces sustained pressure on two critical fronts: China’s People's Liberation Army continues to strengthen its infrastructure and high-altitude capabilities along the Line of Actual Control, necessitating heavy investments on India’s northern and north-eastern borders. Meanwhile, Pakistan maintains low-intensity conflict in Jammu and Kashmir, requiring India to preserve robust conventional forces while accelerating investments in new technologies such as unmanned systems, cyber capabilities, and space-based assets.
The real challenge, however, lies in the deteriorating global economic landscape. Despite hopes of benefiting from "China+1" diversification, India fails to capture significant manufacturing shifts. Western protectionism, combined with structural domestic barriers, limits India's integration into global value chains. Competitors in Southeast Asia outpace India in seizing trade and investment opportunities. India’s energy security is increasingly vulnerable as supply chain fragmentation raises costs and green financing dries up, delaying the renewable energy transition.
Paradoxically, the lack of imminent war constrains India’s ability to modernize its military. Economic stagnation means fewer resources for defence at a time when security pressures continue to mount. India risks falling into a security trap: rising defence demands amid shrinking fiscal space. To avoid this, India must recalibrate by doubling down on domestic resilience, regional partnerships, and selective international engagement.
Geopolitical competition escalated into violent conflict, and geo-economics trends are bad for economic development:
This scenario imagines a world where the dominant megatrends of the previous decade have led to dramatically negative outcomes for India. A hot war breaks out between China and the United States over Taiwan. In parallel, China mobilizes troops along the Line of Actual Control with India, deploying a strategy designed to assert territorial control and claim a moral military victory. China also strengthens partnerships with Pakistan and Bangladesh to pressure India from multiple fronts, turning its immediate neighbourhood into a zone of heightened conflict. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war ends in a frozen stalemate, with Russia moving fully into China's strategic camp. Nuclear brinkmanship becomes the new normal in global diplomacy.
Economically, the world faces prolonged disruption. Supply chains are fragmented, global trade is in retreat, and protectionist policies are widespread. While countries ramp up defence budgets, they also contend with high unemployment, rising sovereign debt, and domestic consumer stress. India finds itself in a resource-constrained environment with weakened demand and rising import costs. To maintain strategic relevance and avoid systemic vulnerability, India must rethink core assumptions around autonomy, resilience, and alliance-building.
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